# Table 6: Residualized-KAOPEN Test Across Portfolio (Papers 1-6)

Tests whether Z₁×KAOPEN interactions survive after purging KAOPEN of income (log GDP/capita) and OECD membership effects.

| Paper | DV | Orig Z₁×KA | p | Resid Z₁×KA | p | Horse: KA p | Horse: Inc p | Verdict | N |
|:--|:--|--:|--:|--:|--:|--:|--:|:--|--:|
| Paper 1: Multilateral | ca_gdp | 0.07 | 0.484 | 0.07 | 0.520 | 0.334 | 0.116 | Null | 3772 |
| Paper 1: Multilateral | gross_national_savings_gdp | 0.36*** | 0.008 | 0.20 | 0.187 | 0.098 | 0.019 | Weakened | 3117 |
| Paper 1: Multilateral | gross_investment_gdp | 0.04 | 0.678 | 0.04 | 0.693 | 0.632 | 0.280 | Null | 3492 |
| Paper 2: Gravity (multilateral) | nfa_gdp | -0.00 | 0.637 | -0.00 | 0.290 | 0.352 | 0.000 | **Spurious** | 3792 |
| Paper 2: Gravity (multilateral) | gross_assets_gdp | 0.15 | 0.921 | 0.39 | 0.814 | 0.798 | 0.649 | Null | 3793 |
| Paper 2: Gravity (multilateral) | debt_assets_gdp | -0.62 | 0.380 | -0.56 | 0.455 | 0.496 | 0.521 | Null | 3793 |
| Paper 4: Capital Deepening | capital_per_worker | -0.00 | 0.382 | -0.00 | 0.613 | 0.501 | 0.000 | **Spurious** | 4517 |
| Paper 4: Capital Deepening | gross_investment_gdp | 0.14 | 0.138 | 0.18* | 0.074 | 0.072 | 0.006 | Marginal | 3920 |
| Paper 4: Capital Deepening | gross_fixed_investment_gdp | 0.06 | 0.438 | 0.12 | 0.165 | 0.178 | 0.001 | **Spurious** | 3789 |
| Paper 4: Capital Deepening | log_labor_productivity | -0.00** | 0.022 | 0.00** | 0.014 | 0.661 | 0.000 | Survives | 4170 |
| Paper 5: Asset Returns (rates) | real_bond_10y | -0.97*** | 0.000 | -1.07*** | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.037 | Survives | 858 |
| Paper 5: Asset Returns (rates) | real_short_3m | -1.39*** | 0.000 | -1.75*** | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.278 | Survives | 877 |
| Paper 5: Asset Returns (flows) | ca_gdp | -0.04 | 0.683 | 0.17 | 0.102 | 0.116 | 0.000 | **Spurious** | 5122 |
| Paper 5: Asset Returns (flows) | gross_national_savings_gdp | 0.02 | 0.818 | 0.16 | 0.132 | 0.108 | 0.000 | **Spurious** | 4213 |
| Paper 6: Japanification | rgdp_growth | 0.05 | 0.298 | 0.04 | 0.442 | 0.523 | 0.261 | Null | 4231 |

**Summary:** 15 tests across Papers 1-6. 6 spurious (income kills KAOPEN), 3 survive residualization, 11 originally null (no KAOPEN interaction to test).

*Method: KAOPEN residualized by regressing on log(GDP/capita) + OECD dummy. Horse race includes both Z₁×KAOPEN and Z₁×log(GDP/capita) simultaneously. Panel GLS with AR(1) errors.*